Scientists Warned in 2008 of Major Earthquake Hitting Haiti Due to Weakening of Enriquillo Fault

According to WSB-TV, Eric Calais, a professor of geophysics at Purdue University and other scientists had detected worrisome signs of growing stresses in the fault that dealt a devastating blow to Haiti on Tuesday with a massive 7.0 magnitude earthquake. They said they warned officials two years ago that the impoverished island-nation was vulnerable to a major earthquake. Those findings were reportedly presented during a geological conference in March 2008 and at meetings two months later. The findings showed that the fault was capable of causing a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, which was a little stronger than the quake that hit Port-au-Prince. Though they warned, two years was certainly not sufficient time, especially for a country that has been dogged by so many woes, to implement measures that would have prevented such devastation.

Eric Calais, a professor of geophysics at Purdue University, said Thursday. Their conclusions also lacked a specific timeframe that could have prodded quick action to shore up the hospitals, schools and other buildings that collapsed and crumbled, said Paul Mann, a senior research scientist at the University of Texas' Institute for Geophysics.

In March 2008, Calais and Mann were among a group of scientists who presented findings on the major quake risk along the Enriquillo fault during the conference in the Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti. Their conclusions were based both on geologic work Mann conducted along the same fault and recent findings by Calais. Calais had detected rising stresses along the fault using global positioning system measurements that showed that the Earth's crust in the area where the fault traverses southern Haiti was slowly deforming as pressure grew within the fault. That pressure, paired with Mann's work and the fact that the last major quake in the area was in 1770, led to the prediction that the fault could produce a 7.2-magnitude temblor.

Calais said he also presented the findings to officials in Haiti during a series of meetings in May 2008 that included the country's prime minister and other high-ranking officials. He said he stressed to the officials that if they did nothing else they should at least begin reinforcing hospitals, schools and key government buildings to weather a strong quake. "We were taken very seriously but unfortunately it didn't translate into action," he said. "The reality is that it was too short of a timeframe to really do something, particularly for a country like Haiti struggling with so many problems."

Calais said Haiti has no seismic stations for monitoring quake activity, while adjoining Dominican Republic has a small seismic network. Although the specific risks of the fault zone near Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince, may not have been known until recent years, the region has a long history of major earthquakes, said Carol Prentice, a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist based in Menlo Park, Calif. Those include earthquakes that destroyed Jamaica's capital, Kingston, in 1692 and 1907, that also occurred along the Enriquillo fault, which extends hundreds of miles through the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. Source: WSB-TV

This is such a sad time for our world right now that we must help the countries in the Caribbean, particularly Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic reinforce their infrastructure to withstand any possible earthquakes in the future. I remember as a child in Jamaica we felt a tremor during school one day and students ran. It was a scary moment, but that was just a tremor. I cannot begin to explain how sad I am about what has happened to the people of Haiti.